WIND TURBINES, POWER GENERATION AND RENEWABLES

REPORTS, PRESS ARTICLES & POLEMICS

'Watchdog urges overhaul of green energy scheme

'Developers of renewable energy schemes such as wind farms are profiteering from the Government’s drive to curb carbon emissions by making customers pay more for their electricity than is necessary, the energy regulator Ofgem warned yesterday [22 January 2007].

'Publishing figures which reveal that the cost of the so-called “renewables obligation” is at least eight times greater than other schemes designed to combat climate change, Ofgem called for a wholesale shake-up of the current arrangements.

'The obligation works by requiring energy suppliers to buy a certain proportion of their electricity from renewable sources or buy certificates to cover the shortfall. The cost of this is then passed on to the end customer.

'Ofgem calculates that since the obligation was introduced in 2002 customers have been overcharged by £740m. The scheme adds £7 to the average annual bill at present, but by 2015 this will have risen to £20. At present, 5 per cent of the UK’s electricity comes from renewable sources, but this is due to rise to 20 per cent by 2020.

[...]

'The regulator calculates that it costs between £184 and £481 to cut a tonne of carbon under the renewables obligation. This compares with a cost of between £12 and £70 under the European Union’s emissions trading scheme and £18 to £40 under the Climate Change Levy.

'Alistair Buchanan, chief executive of Ofgem, said: “We think that a review of the scheme could provide more carbon reductions and promote renewable generation at a lower cost to consumers who are already facing higher energy bills.”'

[...]

Michael Harrison, Business Editor, 23 January 2007 Independent.co.uk

The Carbon Trust also criticised the RO as being 'deeply flawed' and needing revision.

The gravy train continues

The Government are going to revise the RO (in 2009/10). But, they have ignored advice from Ofgem, the Carbon Trust and others who advised against their favoured form of banding.
The wind industry repeatedly claims that wind turbines are an established, proven and competitive technology, then howls with outrage whenever bodies such as the National Audit Office criticise the excessive subsidy paid to onshore wind.
They have succeeded in hanging on to their excessive rewards, while even higher rates will be paid (by the consumer) to other technologies that have been sidelined by the Klondike wind rush:

See: DTI. Energy White Paper - Supporting documents - 'Renewable energy: reform of the renewables Obligation' (PDF download).

UK WIND TURBINE PERFORMANCE FIGURES
THE FACTS

British Wind Energy Association 'Top Myths About Wind Energy'

"4. Wind farms are inefficient and only work 30% of the time
Fact: A modern wind turbine produces electricity 70-85% of the time, but it generates different outputs depending on the wind speed. Over the course of a year, it will typically generate about 30% of the theoretical maximum output."
BWEA Website - Top Myths

We already know that existing turbine arrays in the North East are failing to produce anything like the 'typical' figure claimed by the BWEA:

DTI, 'Energy Trends', March 2006 p. 29

Regional wind industry 'experts' claim that the figures are distorted because many of the existing turbines are old/small/inefficient. But, they fail to explain how building new turbines in areas such as ours with very poor wind figures is going to improve the picture. This is especially the case when turbines would have to run in a 'reduced noise output' mode due to proximity to houses; this can reduce an already small power output by 30 to 40%.
Common sense suggests that the figures will actually get worse unless the industry starts developing offshore sites or upland areas with a decent wind resource.
Unfortunately, the Renewables Obligation subsidy means that the lower costs of developing lowland, low wind sites more than offset any gains from a higher potential output at remote upland sites that would be difficult to access and develop.

Recent research by the Renewable Energy Foundation (REF), using OFGEM's recorded production figures for 2005 has now exposed more widespread problems. While capacities offshore are better, those onshore are generally only superior in locations very distant from the populations requiring the electrical energy.

Using this analysis of the Ofgem data, researchers have also calibrated a model predicting how a large installed capacity of wind power built across the UK would actually perform. The project used Meteorological Office data to model output for every hour of every January from 1994-2006.

The startling results show that, even when distributed UK wide, the output is still highly volatile. Mr Graham Sinden argued in a controversial paper that there would be a much greater 'smoothing effect' from distributed wind installations.

The wind industry also argues that connecting the UK grid with high-capacity links to those of other European nations would create a ‘Supergrid’ with wind so widely spread that output would be sure to even out. In an article for the journal Energy Policy (‘Will British weather provide reliable electricity?’), consulting engineer Jim Oswald and his co-authors compare a UK big-wind model of output with those produced by other European wind bases, particularly the substantial German/Danish one:

“Not only does the large continental wind base exhibit nasty rollercoaster surges in aggregate output, these surges tend to match those to be expected in the UK. When the wind isn't blowing across most of the UK, it isn't blowing in Germany, Denmark etc. either. Worse still, this happens in the dead of winter when electricity demand is highest.”

There is good agreement between the model and the [real-world European wind power output] data, which further supports the argument that wind output is controlled by the arrival and dispersal of large low-pressure systems moving over the coasts of Western Europe.

(See Research: Wind power pricier, emits more CO2 than thought, article on Oswald consultancy research for REF in The Register, 3 July 2008).

UK RENEWABLE ENERGY DATA

The Renewable Energy Foundation publishes a very valuable resource in its ‘Renewable Energy Data’ files (‘RED’ Files) these provide site specific load factors and output data for the various renewables sectors. The data files are accompanied by sector overview files, one for each technology area. Check out the Wind file for site specific data that gives the real output figures for wind installations rather than developer’ ‘creative’ projections.

The Wind Problem in a Nutshell

From: Hugh Sharman, 'Why UK wind power should not exceed 10 GW'.
Civil Engineering journal: PDF download

The above diagram clearly shows the problem of forecasting wind speed and hence power production from wind turbines. The margin of error in forecasting wind speeds plus a safety margin has to be covered by reserve when significant amounts of power are generated from wind.

E.On.Netz (Germany). 'Wind Report 2005' (downloadable PDF).

The real world experience from countries with a large installed capacity has been that it substitutes for only a small percentage of fossil-fuelled power and that it leads to significant problems in grid management. It is no coincidence that some of the most critical voices of wind power generation come from the companies that manage electricity supply and distribution.

The Californian Experience:

“Because wind is an intermittent resource, it can not be counted upon in California to meet the peak loads on the hottest days of the year. [...] The wind typically does not blow on the hottest days of the year so the wind generation production is usually less than 10% of its nameplate capacity at the time of the summer peak load.” (California ISO integration of renewable resources report , August 2007).
“Typically during the summer months, the CAISO simultaneous peak demand occurs during hour-ending 1700. As shown in Figure 7, the actual wind generation for the period of the July 2006 heat wave averaged less than 200 MW during the hour of system peak demand.”

Figure 7. Wind Generation and Output at Peak [demand].
From California ISO. ‘2007 Summer Loads and Resources Operations Assessment’ March 8, 2007.(pdf file)
(NB See the article below on California's 2006 'energy crunch')

And in Germany:

E.On.Netz (Germany). 'Wind Report 2005' (downloadable PDF).

"Whilst wind power feed-in at 9.15am on Christmas Eve reached its maximum for the year at 6,024MW, it fell to below 2,000MW within only 10 hours, a difference of over 4,000MW. This corresponds to the capacity of 8 x 500MW coal fired power station blocks. On Boxing Day, wind power feed-in in the E.ON grid fell to below 40MW. Handling such significant differences in feed-in levels poses a major challenge to grid operators."

And in Texas:

‘Loss of wind causes Texas power grid emergency

‘ - A drop in wind generation late on Tuesday, coupled with colder weather, triggered an electric emergency that caused the Texas grid operator to cut service to some large customers, the grid agency said on Wednesday.

‘Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said a decline in wind energy production in west Texas occurred at the same time evening electric demand was building as colder temperatures moved into the state.

‘The grid operator went directly to the second stage of an emergency plan at 6:41 PM CST (0041 GMT), ERCOT said in a statement.

‘System operators curtailed power to interruptible customers to shave 1,100 megawatts of demand within 10 minutes, ERCOT said. Interruptible customers are generally large industrial customers who are paid to reduce power use when emergencies occur.

[...].’

(See: Yahoo! News, Wednesday Feb 27).

‘Debate flares over wind power in Texas.
There is such a thing as too much wind power.’

‘Sure, wind is among the cheapest, cleanest fuels generating the power Texans increasingly demand. But as officials brag about the state's status as the No. 1 wind producer in the country, they're also debating how much is too much. Building the transmission lines to bring wind power from rural West Texas to population zones will cost billions. And even with enough transmission lines, the on-again, off-again nature of wind can leave coal and natural gas-fired power plants scrambling to fill in the gaps.’

‘For electricity companies, predicting wind patterns is a new art.’

‘The wind blows hardest before the sun comes up, when people aren't using much power. It tends to die down during the afternoon – especially in the summer – just when people demand more juice.’

[...]

‘Even if regulators solve the transmission issue, it isn't easy integrating more wind power into the grid.’

‘In February, wind in West Texas died unexpectedly, leaving ERCOT scrambling to get backup natural gas plants online to meet power demand. The scare prompted ERCOT to upgrade its wind forecasting system. ’

‘ERCOT pays some power plants to operate on standby, ready to begin producing power within minutes if needed. Accommodating the fickle wind means paying more plants to stand by, adding to the total cost of wholesale power.’ [And emitting CO2! Ed.]

[...]

(see: Dallas News, Sunday, July 6, 2008).

And in Canada:

• Capacity factor so far is 22.3% (not including results from a wind farm apparently experiencing start-up problems);

• Periods of very low or no production were particularly common during high-demand periods;

• High but highly variable wind production during low demand periods was common;

• The hourly production pattern in most months demonstrated a declining average output during the 4 a.m. to 8 a.m. period – a period when consumer power usage consistently increases.

(See: Energy Probe. 'Review of Wind Power Results in Ontario', November 15, 2006.)

‘BIG WIND’ IN THE REAL WORLD: GERMANY

“Der Windmühlen Wahn: Vom Traum umweltfreundlicher Energie zur subventionierten Landschaftszerstörung” “Wind turbine Madness: from a dream of environmentally friendly energy to highly subsidised destruction of the countryside.”

At the end of 2006 Germany had 18,685 operating wind turbines, according to the German Wind Energy Association (BWE); they now have over 20,000. By comparison, the UK had 1,951 working turbines as of February, 2008 (British Wind Energy Association). Germany's massive wind capacity generated the equivalent of c. 5% of electricity consumption.

Germany is now running out of onshore sites for turbines and is concentrating on offshore construction.

However, huge numbers of German turbines have had little effect on carbon emissions due to the high level of backup required:

“Wind energy is only able to replace traditional power stations to a limited extent.

“Their dependence on the prevailing wind conditions means that wind power has a limited load factor even when technically available. It is not possible to guarantee its use for the continual cover of electricity consumption. Consequently, traditional power stations with capacities equal to 90% of the installed wind power capacity must be permanently online in order to guarantee power supply at all times. [Our emphasis].”
(E.On Netz, Wind Report 2005, p. 4)

Problems, problems

Germany's huge installed wind capacity has not delivered on the forecasts made for it, delivering only 17-18% of installed capacity. It has also caused increasing and serious instability in the electricity supply system:

‘FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - German utilities are warning the government of bottlenecks in power transmission grids due to the difficulties of integrating higher shares of wind energy, Handelsblatt reported.

[...]

‘The number of incidents has risen significantly over the past two years, the report said. Vattenfall Europe AG's transmission unit recorded 155 days where the situation was critical on grids last year [2007], and 28 out of 29 days so far this year.

[...]’ (Thomson Financial News, 31 Jan 2008).

Production companies also complain at the use of 'curtailment' (shutting down of wind power stations) in the effort to dampen instability. In 2006 wind turbines were taken off the grid for several hours on about 40 windy days, “And with respect to this year we are already talking about a downtime of 15 percent,” said Hermann Albers, vice president of the BWE. There are also huge cost implications in strengthening the transmission system to try and cope with intermittent wind power surges.

Germany is committed to not replacing nuclear stations and it was announced last year that they are having to build 26 new coal- and lignite-fired power stations in order to provide stable, base-load power generation. Lignite, or ‘brown coal’, is even more environmentally damaging than coal.

‘German utilities warn of power bottlenecks due to wind integration.’ Thomson Financial News, CNBC, 31 January 2008.
‘Wind parks: a hot power lines dispute’, Heise Online, 23 June 2006.
‘E.ON Netz Wind Report 2005’ is available as a PDF download .
‘German wind power investing, tilting at windmills.’ The Energy Letter, The Market Oracle. Jun 30, 2007.
‘Wuthering Heights, The Dangers of Wind Power.’ Spiegel Online, August 20, 2007. (Article on safety and reliability problems).
‘Germany Plans Boom in Coal-Fired Power Plants -- Despite High Emissions.’Spiegel Online, 22 March 2007.

'Wind Power Report Shows Facts Instead of Myths

(August 8, 2006)

'The most important findings of this report highlight studies that raise critical concerns challenging some of the claims made for wind power. Badly needed evidence is now available after three years of large scale operation of wind turbines in five countries..... These studies are the first real evidence showing how wind actually works, as opposed to what has been claimed, and come from some of the most authoritative voices on energy in the world......ABS Energy Research’s report does not relegate wind power to the dustbin. But it does show how essential proper analysis is to establish what renewable energy can and cannot deliver and how it must be accommodated within a total electricity generation system. Objective analysis is essential. Nearly every one of the points described in the study has been labelled a "myth" by a lobby group.

[...]

The most important findings of this report highlight studies that raise critical concerns challenging some of the claims made for wind power. Badly needed evidence is now available after three years of large scale operation of wind turbines in five countries. In one such country, Ireland, the government placed a moratorium on wind power development, although this has been rescinded.

These studies are the first real evidence showing how wind actually works, as opposed to what has been claimed, and come from some of the most authoritative voices on energy in the world. Reports from E.On Netz, the system operator with the largest wind power feed-in in the world, and Eltra of Denmark, which had the largest percentage wind power contribution, show disturbing results.

E.On cites a study from the Deutsche-Energie Agentur. The report was sponsored by the German government and all sides of the industry. Among bombshells contained inside, the study suggests that while wind power capacity will reach 48 GW by 2020 in Germany, the source is so intermittent and unreliable that it is equivalent to only 2 GW of stable fossil fuel capacity.

The evidence also shows a mismatch of supply and demand. High pressure weather systems bring cold winters and hot summers which unfortunately coincide with low wind levels. These meteorological realities mean that wind makes its maximum contribution when demand is lowest and its minimum contribution when demand is highest. In 2004, wind accounted for 20 percent of total electricity production in Denmark but supplied only 6 percent of consumption, because it produced a surplus at periods of lowest demand. What's more, 84 percent of Danish wind-generated electricity was exported to Norway, and sold at a loss for Denmark. Furthermore, the Norwegian electricity system uses carbon free hydro power, so the effect of carbon reductions realised in power produced by windmills was nullified.

Also, because of this variability in wind, back-up fossil fuel plants must be operated at low load to maintain system reliability. There is new evidence that shows that switching base load fossil fuel plants on and off to balance a system produces higher carbon emissions than continuous operation, certainly not a supposed benefit from switching to renewable energy sources.

Because wind installations tend to be concentrated in areas with high wind speeds, regional grids are heavily overloaded at times of maximum feed-in. Each country studied reported extreme difficulties in balancing the grid. A further 2,700 km of costly high voltage transmission lines will be required in Germany to accommodate new wind capacity.

It is clear that wind-generated electricity can only work as part of a generation portfolio. The US Department of Energy advocates small local targets within states, most recently proposing targets of 100 MW in each of the 30 states, rather than the huge wind parks favoured in Europe.

ABS Energy Research’s report does not relegate wind power to the dustbin. But it does show how essential proper analysis is to establish what renewable energy can and cannot deliver and how it must be accommodated within a total electricity generation system. Objective analysis is essential. Nearly every one of the points described in the study has been labelled a "myth" by a lobby group.'

(A summary is downloadable at ABS Energy Research. The full report is available for £830.)

The hidden cost of wind turbines

When the turbines go up, it’s not just the scenery that suffers, it's the atmosphere too. Ed Douglas reveals the environmental costs of wind power

July 6, 2006 by Ed Douglas in newscientist.com

'[...]

'Mike Hall from the Cumbria Wildlife Trust in north-west England has developed a formula to give a wind-energy CO2 "budget" that balances the CO2 savings that a project is expected to provide against the CO2 costs from the manufacture and shipping of the turbines and construction work at the site.

'The CO2 costs are considerable even before accounting for emissions from peatland, primarily because of the energy required to produce the concrete in which turbines are embedded. The new generation of 140-metre turbines, need foundations the size of half a football pitch. Building on peat bogs contributes another large source of CO2 that can add years to a turbine's CO2 payback time. "The major CO2 debt incurred by a wind turbine on a peat-rich site is not in its manufacture and installation but in the ongoing degradation of peat," Hall says.

'Payback time

'Hall has devised three scenarios for CO2 emissions from degrading peat. The first is a baseline figure calculated simply from the amount of peat excavated in construction. The second "minimal scenario" includes emissions from degraded peat up to 50 metres around areas of disturbance such as foundations and service roads. This figure is being used by wind farm developer AMEC in Scotland. A third "high scenario" extends that range to 100 metres. Hall believes this is closest to the actual level of disruption, citing Lindsay's research, which indicates that damage to peat can extend for as much as 250 metres on either side of tracks or drainage ditches, as water drains from the affected area.

'To calculate carbon savings, Hall uses the developers' own predictions, which generally give figures for overall electricity generation of about 30 per cent of the maximum rated capacity of a turbine. The average achieved output for existing wind farms is actually lower than this - 25.6 per cent according to industry figures. Using the conservative "minimal scenario", Hall calculates that a 2-megawatt turbine built on peat moorland 1 metre deep will take 8.2 years to pay back its CO2 cost. The figure for the "high scenario" is a whopping 16 years. Even the minimal figure is a substantial portion of a turbine's normal lifespan of 25 years, and considerably higher than the industry's own figures, which range between three and 18 months.

[...]'

Read the full article.

See also the National Trust's campaign on peat moorlands.

Postscript

The construction of the 140 turbine Whitelee power station near East Kilbride, 15km south of Glasgow, involves a massive destruction of peat on Lochgoin Moor. It rises to 330m above sea level and is covered in a thick layer of peat that is up to 12m deep in places.

This is far from an isolated case. The industry is bent on wreaking a similar level of damage to the highly protected peatlands on Lewis and there are numerous other examples in Scotland, albeit on a slightly smaller scale.

Onshore wind generation is the cheapest renewable, but with back up, it costs two and a half times as much as gas or nuclear.

August 4, 2006 in European Process Engineer Magazine

In a report published on 10March, the UK-based Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE) reveals that electricity from offshore wind farms, currently the most viable renewable source, will cost at least twice as much as that from conventional sources.

The independent study, commissioned from international energy consultants PBPower, puts all energy sources on a level playing field by comparing the costs of generating electricity from new plants using a range of different technologies and energy sources. The cheapest electricity will come from gas turbines and nuclear stations, costing just 2.3p/kWh, compared with 3.7p/kWh for onshore wind and 5.5p/kWh for offshore wind farms.

"This may sound surprising," said RAE vice president Philip Ruffles, who chaired the study group, "especially as we have included the cost of decommissioning in our assessment of the nuclear generation costs. The weakness of the UK government's energy white paper was that it saw nuclear power as very expensive. But modern nuclear stations are far simpler and more streamlined than the old generation - the latest are only about half the size of SizewellB - and far cheaper to build and run."

In the case of wind energy it is also necessary to provide back up capacity for when the wind does not blow. In this report, the RAE says it has been rather generous with the wind generation figures - assuming a need for about 65percent back-up power from conventional sources. The RAE has previously called for even higher back-up, more like 75to80percent. Even so, the cost of back up capacity adds 1.7p/kWh to the costs.

Onshore wind generation is the cheapest renewable, but with back up, it costs two and a half times as much as gas or nuclear.

Wind, nuclear and biomass generation all have the benefit of not emitting carbon dioxide, and the study also looked at the impact on costs of capturing carbon dioxide for all fossil fuels. This could add at least 2 p/kWh for coal-fired generators and 1-2p/kWh for gas generators. "Coal looks uneconomic in the future," said Ruffles, "by the time you capture the carbon dioxide it's going to cost as much as onshore wind."

Transmission costs

This study did not consider transmission costs to individual technologies or storage costs for gas to ensure security of supply - the market currently absorbs these through system operating costs or the cost of gas.

However, providing energy a long way from the eventual customer will add to its cost. "The renewables sector already benefits from subsidies worth around £485million a year through the Renewables Objective," added Ruffles. "The UK government is also planning to offer further subsidies in the form of reductions in transmission charges - this may run counter to the spirit of the new European Electricity Directive aimed at promoting competitive energy markets."

Ruffles concluded that people need to appreciate the real costs of generating electricity, including wind power.

[...]'

'Wind power - "variable" or "intermittent"?
A problem - whatever the word.'

© Dr John Etherington, 2006 (2nd edition).

A paper on the achilles heel of the wind industry. Word doc download.

"You really don't count on wind energy as capacity. It is different from other technologies because it can't be dispatched," said Christine Real de Azua, assistant director of communications for the American Wind Energy Association.

(August 29, 2006 by Esther Whieldon in Platts Power Markets Week. See full article).

'California legislators need to remember wind generation is not the answer to California's growing energy capacity needs, said Yakout Mansour, president and CEO of the state's Independent System Operator.¹

'On August 9, while giving a summary of the ISO's performance during last month's heat wave and energy crunch, Mansour told California's Senate Committee on Governmental Organizations that while conservation, demand response, interruptible programs, and voluntary load reductions played a "significant role in making it through the tough days," wind resources were on average only supplying about 5% of their installed nameplate power capacity during peak hours.

'It was a good time to educate the legislatures, Mansour told Platts in an interview on August 17. "It is very important for them to know what [wind power] does and what it doesn't do," Mansour said. "This was a good time to be honest with them."

'The California Public Utilities Commission is requiring investor-owned utilities in California to have 20% of their energy portfolios include renewable resources such as wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, by 2010. This energy does not have to be part of the utilities' capacity. Instead, a utility has to demonstrate through ownership of renewable energy credits that it has supported an amount of renewable generation equal to 20% of their annual kWh sales.

'"You really don't count on wind energy as capacity. It is different from other technologies because it can't be dispatched," said Christine Real de Azua, assistant director of communications for the American Wind Energy Association.

'The ISO believes wind is a great resource for replacing power purchased from gas and coal power plants, "but it is not a panacea," an ISO spokesman said. "We advocate a balanced portfolio." Generators will still need to supplement the intermittent nature of wind by shaping hydroelectric output or with new coal- and gas-fired generators.

'There is about 2500 MW of installed nameplate wind generation currently operational in California, according to ISO documents. Wind turbines typically can produce at 25% to 30% of capacity according to the American Wind Energy Association. This would mean that on average during a blustery day in California wind farms could produce about 625 MW to 750 MW.

'Daily snapshots of available wind energy when the ISO reached its peak from July 22 through July 25 was on average about 6% of capacity or about 150 MW, according to Cal-ISO data.

'California's rapidly expanding energy needs became quite clear when demand in July went about 6% above the worst-case summer scenario accessed by the ISO earlier this year. ISO control area loads hit a record high of 50,270 MW at about 2:45pm July 24. At that time, wind in California was contributing about 255 MW, or about 10% of wind nameplate capacity.

'Ironically, the very heat storm that caused loads to spike also caused decreased wind flows.

...

'In the meantime, load-serving entities know not to count on the full nameplate capacity of a plant, said a market participant who trades primarily in California markets, "Wind doesn't help from a keep-the-lights-on-perspective," the source said.'

¹ "The California ISO is a not-for-profit public-benefit corporation charged with operating the majority of California’s high-voltage wholesale power grid. Balancing the demand for electricity with an equal supply of megawatts, the ISO is the impartial link between power plants and the utilities that serve more than 30 million consumers."

Too many turbines - German wind power station operators sue grid operators for shut-downs

'A number of wind park operators in the northern German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein have filed an action for damages with the district court in the town of Itzehoe against the power grid operator E.ON Netz. They are accusing the company of using superficial or specious technical difficulties as an excuse for preventing the use of wind-generated electricity, which is unpopular with energy utilities. Last year the wind turbines were already taken off the grid for several hours on about 40 windy days. "And with respect to this year we are already talking about a downtime of 15 percent," Hermann Albers, vice president of the German Wind Energy Association (BWE), said. This state of affairs had serious implications for the economic viability of wind parks, he noted.'

The Shape of Things to Come?

In 2003, faced with 4,500MW of intermittent power from renewables, the West Danish grid operator Eltra was feeling the strain:

Per Andersen, Chief Information Officer, Eltra:

"The large, unregulated output of electricity from renewables such as wind turbines and decentralised combined heat and power [CHP] plants puts Eltra's central control room operators in a position which can be likened to manoeuvering a speeding truck without steering wheel, accelerator, gears or brakes. For many reasons, this stressful ride can't go on.

[...]

Hans Schiøtt, Chairman, Eltra:

You can understand that while the total was modest it was of no consequence to the system operator whether the plants operated or how they operated. But it's not like that now. We can now experience 4,500MW being fed into the system whether we can use it or not. Quite simply, it can't go on like this. Decentralised production must take its share of responsibility for the functioning of the system."
Eltra Magazine, No. 1, 2003 (translated from the Danish).

We are presently in the position described by Hans Schiøtt - our small amount of wind generated power is not large enough to affect grid operation. If we continue on the present course of unplanned, developer-led expansion of wind power, we will soon hit the sort of problems that the Danes and Germans have now had for several years: an unstable grid with feast or famine supplies of intermittent power being produced far from the end user.
At the moment, there is little sign that the powers that be have put any thought to how a possible 12,000MW of intermittent power is going to be managed. No doubt they will start to work that out when the juggernaut begins to go out of control.

It is interesting that the grid operators in both Denmark and Germany [see our piece on the EON Netz Wind Report 2005] are highly critical of wind power and the problems it creates. Even when, as in the case of E.ON (who own Powergen), they are also major wind power station owners and operators themselves!

Postscript: The huge installed wind capacity in Germany is only managed by what is euphemistically called 'curtailment' (and by exporting power below cost to neighbouring countries). Wind power generators are now up in arms because curtailment is affecting their profits. See above.

Nobody seems to be asking what will happen when every country in Europe has huge numbers of heavily subsidised intermittent generators. We suspect governments will then start compensating operators for curtailment before eventually paying them to decommision turbine arrays. What is certain is that the electricity consumer/tax payer will end up paying through the nose for the great wind power bubble of the noughties.

WIND 'FARMING' IN GERMANY

"Der Windmühlen Wahn: Vom Traum umweltfreundlicher Energie zur subventionierten Landschaftszerstörung"
("Wind turbine Madness: from a dream of environmentally friendly energy to highly subsidised destruction of the countryside.")

While the wind power industry in this country makes sweeping and, usually, wholly unsubstantiated statements about the benefits of large scale wind power generation, Denmark and Germany are living with the reality of very large installed capacity.

E.ON Netz, the German grid-operating arm of the E.ON group which is a major power generator and grid operator in the UK as well as the rest of Europe (they own Powergen and are the second largest power generator and grid operator in the UK), produce an annual Wind Report which should be essential reading for anyone who wants to be better informed about the facts of wind power generation.

We quote part of Martin Fuchs' (CEO of E.ON Netz GmbH) speech at the annual Report press conference on 16 June 2005:

Where do we stand today?
At the end of 2004, some 34,200 MW – over 80% – of the world’s wind energy capacity (41,300 MW in total) was installed in Europe. Roughly half of this figure was based in Germany.

At the end of last year, we had over 40% of German wind power capacity in all, with 7,050 MW of installed wind power, in the E.ON Netz area. The majority of this is concentrated in Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein. Still occasionally praised as a decentralized form of power, wind energy has thus become one of the most geographically concentrated forms of power generation.

The wind integration challenge is based on three simple facts:

1. The wind blows when it will.



2. The wind blows as it will – despite increasingly accurate forecasts, it is difficult to predict its actual strength.



3. The wind blows where it will – and sadly, it does not blow where large quantities of power are required.
   
   

The effect of natural wind fluctuations on wind power generation can be demonstrated by the following examples from our 2004 statistics.

On 12 September, wind power supplies covered up to 38% of our grid power requirements at times. This was the highest value achieved during the past year. On 30 September, on the other hand, this figure was down to 0.2 % – the lowest value of the year.

Maximum wind power output in our control area was achieved on the morning of 24 December, with an absolute figure of 6,024 MW (compare this with the 2003 maximum power supply of 4,981 MW and the top figure of 3,546 MW for 2002). However, the supply on Christmas Eve 2004 fell to under 2,000 MW within just ten hours. By Boxing Day – on 26 December – the figure had slumped to under 40 MW, a negligible value to all intents and purposes.

The random nature of the wind energy supply means that control and compensation energy requirements, for the provision of which transmission system operators are responsible, are constantly increasing.

At the same time, the capability of wind energy to replace conventional power plant capacities is diminishing in percentage terms. If some 8% of wind energy output contributes to Germany’s secured total output today, this figure is set to fall to 4 % by 2020 if the predicted expansion of wind power goes as forecast. In concrete terms, this means that wind power plants with a 48,000 MW output will only replace a secured 2,000 MW of thermally generated power – the equivalent of just two new-generation coal blocks.

'The Dash for Wind - West Denmark’s Experience and UK’s Energy Aspirations'

Hugh Sharman, a consultant in the energy industry, presents a devastating analysis of the problems created by Denmark's huge investment in onshore wind power generating capacity. He forecasts that these problems will be even worse in the UK if we go ahead with the present massive unplanned expansion of onshore wind power stations.
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'UK Wind-power Market Risks Overheating'

Britain’s wind-power market is at risk of overheating according to the latest issue (158, 4) of the Institution of Civil Engineers Civil Engineering journal. Energy consultant Hugh Sharman examines how experience in Denmark and Germany shows that the UK will find it impractical to manage much over 10 GW of unpredictable wind power without major new storage schemes or inter-connectors.

He shows in his paper how a 12 GW wind-farm ‘carpet’ might perform based on how Denmark’s 2.4 GW carpet performed during recent storms. This indicates that wind-power peaks could suddenly be providing more that half of England’s and Wales’ summertime demand, making the grid very difficult if not impossible to balance given the relatively slow response times of gas and nuclear plant.
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TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

'Security of decarbonised electricity systems'
Technical report 30
July 2005

The Tyndall Centre has been conducting in-depth research into renewables and their implications for carbon burdens, conventional power plant substitution and security of supply. This technical report shows that many wind industry claims for substitution and gross carbon savings are hugely exaggerated.* A part of their conclusions was:

We observed that wind generation has a relatively small capacity credit. At lower levels of wind penetrations the capacity credit of wind generation is found to be about the same as the average load factor of wind. However, as the level of wind penetration rises, the capacity credit begins to tail off. That is why in order to maintain the same level of system security a significant capacity of conventional plant will still be required.

However, these conventional plants will be required to run either occasionally and/or at part load when shortages of supply are likely to occur due to a low total wind power output. Considering that conventional plants at full load are the most efficient and generate the lowest amount of CO2 emission (per electricity produced) such occasionally and/or part-loaded plants will be less utilised and/or produce more CO2 per electricity produced.

Wind capacity credit could be significantly reduced if incidences such as anticyclone “cold snaps” occur. These incidences give high demand but little wind anywhere in the country. Such coincidence of high demand and no wind conditions in the whole country could reduce wind capacity credit by up to three thirds.

Generation and demand in an electricity system must be balanced at all times. Traditionally, the balance between demand and supply is managed by flexible generation. On average, the system operator in the UK commits about 600MW of dynamic frequency control, while about 2,400MW of various types of reserve is required to manage the uncertainty over time horizons of the order of 3-4 hours. These values could be significantly changed for the future UK decarbonised electricity systems, considering that renewable generation is both variable and unpredictable.

Statistical analysis of the fluctuations of wind output over the various time horizons in this report show that magnitude of this variation can be significant. The magnitude of wind output variations will also strongly depend upon the time horizon and wind penetration level. Clearly, the magnitude of wind fluctuations increases as the time horizon under consideration becomes longer. Penetration of wind generation will therefore impose additional requirements on the remaining large conventional plant to deliver both the flexibility and reserve necessary to maintain the continuous balance between load and generation, which will inevitably have cost implications.

(Conclusions, 5, Ensuring new and renewable energy can meet electricity demand: security of decarbonised electricity systems, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 30, July 2005).

*The British Wind Energy Association still continues to claim, without any qualification, that: "Every unit (kWh) of electricity produced by the wind displaces a unit of electricity which would otherwise have been produced by a power station burning fossil fuel." BWEA, Calculations and Statistics.

'Hundreds of millions of pounds raised from electricity bills to help develop renewable energy are being diverted to the Treasury, creating a new "stealth tax".
(December 10, 2005 by Oliver Tickell in The Independent Online Edition)

So far, the Treasury has taken £210m from the so-called NFFO Fund, while only £60m has been spent on renewable energy.

By 2010, the fund is expected to have raised as much as £1bn, which is likely to be taken by the Treasury for general spending. The process is based on the fund being a "hereditary revenue of the Crown" along with income arising from the Crown's traditional rights to treasure trove, swans and sturgeons.

[...]

Since it was set up in 2002, the NFFO (Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation) fund has raised £321m from consumers' electricity bills - more than £13 for every household in England and Wales. Of that, the Treasury has so far taken £210m. Just £60m has been spent on capital grants for offshore windpower installations, leaving a balance of £51m.

The Department of Trade and Industry has confirmed that once the money is in what is known as the Consolidated Fund, it belongs to the Treasury. "It is the policy of the Government that we do not hypothecate revenue, so once the funds are transferred that is it," said the DTI's renewables policy adviser, Alex King.

The Treasury took a first tranche of £60m in 2004, as it was allowed to do under a one-off provision in the Sustainable Energy Act 2003. However the power regulator Ofgem, which administers the fund, has now revealed that on 20 September it paid a further £150m to the Treasury.

"Further funding was paid to Her Majesty's Treasury under the Civil List Act 1952," said an Ofgem spokesman. "As receipts of levy surplus are regarded as hereditary revenues of the Crown, it is intended that annual transfers to the Treasury will continue, in accordance with the 1952 Act."

The Civil List Act 1952 states that "hereditary revenues of the Crown" are to be paid into the Treasury's Consolidated Fund. The nature of these revenues is not specified, however Halsbury's Laws of England, written by Lord Hailsham in 1932, states that the hereditary revenues of the Crown include revenues from Crown lands, and other revenues from treasure trove, fines, forfeitures and "prerogative rights relating to royal mines, royal fish and swans". It is not clear on what basis the NFFO fund could be so regarded.

The Energy minister, Malcolm Wicks, failed to mention the transfer of funds in a written answer on 12 September, in response to a parliamentary question by Bill Wiggin MP, the Conservative environment spokesman. Instead he said the estimated "size of the fund" would be £500m by 2008. This figure, which does not account for the 20 September transfer or other subsequent transfers, was thus wrong.

"I am astonished," said Mr Wiggin, when presented with the facts. "Did the minister know he would transfer the money out a week later? He must have done. I suspect his officials could have tried harder to ensure that I knew what was going on. I find it hard to believe he has control over his department if this is what is going on. Either that or he did know and did not want me to know, which is not acceptable in a parliamentary written answer."'

[...]

See full article.

THE DTI AND THE DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT

Australian Environment and Heritage Minister Senator Ian Campbell recently sent a letter on the issue of wind farms to all State Environment Ministers:

Alana Lacy
Office Manager
HON WILSON TUCKEY
0898 426228

Dear Minister

I am writing to you and to other State and Territory governments to propose an agreement to development of a national code for the location of wind farms. A key component of this code should be an agreement that wind farms not be constructed against the wishes of the local community that will be most affected.

I am most concerned that members of local communities are often being given only limited involvement in determining if a wind farm is to be established in their area. While wind technology is a part of the portfolio of power sources that the world needs to combat greenhouse gas emissions, it is vital that local communities, including those in often sensitive and scenic coastal areas, do not have wind farms thrust upon them. If such action continues to be taken it will make wind farms increasingly unpopular and this will create an animosity towards wind energy and be counterproductive to all our interests. I believe that we need a truly inclusive and consultative local planning process. As you would be aware, the EPBC Act currently allows me to regulate to define specified actions as requiring referral under the Act. Because I am so concerned about the growth in negative sentiment toward wind energy which is occurring as wind farms are established against the expressed views of the democratically elected councils, I am considering making a new regulation under the EPBC Act in relation to wind farms. This regulation would require all proposed wind farms to be referred under the EPBC Act. As you know, economic and social factors such as the views of local councils and their communities would be relevant considerations in any decision I make to approve a wind farm following assessment. I would certainly be reluctant to approve a wind farm in the face of clear local opposition expressed through votes of shires of councils.

I also intend to examine my programmes to consider future funding arrangements for those wind projects that are clearly against the expressed wishes of the local community.

Yours sincerely

IAN CAMPBELL

'HOW MIRRORS CAN LIGHT UP THE WORLD

'The desert, just across the Mediterranean sea, is a vast source of energy that holds the promise of a carbon-free, nuclear-free electrical future for the whole of Europe, if not the world.

We are not talking about the vast oil and gas deposits underneath Algeria and Libya, or uranium for nuclear plants, but something far simpler - the sun. And in vast quantities: every year it pours down the equivalent of 1.5m barrels of oil of energy for every square kilometre.

Most people in Britain think of solar power as a few panels on the roof of a house producing hot water or a bit of electricity. But according to two reports prepared for the German government, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa should be building vast solar farms in North Africa's deserts using a simple technology that more resembles using a magnifying glass to burn a hole in a piece of paper than any space age technology.

Two German scientists, Dr Gerhard Knies and Dr Franz Trieb, calculate that covering just 0.5% of the world's hot deserts with a technology called concentrated solar power (CSP) would provide the world's entire electricity needs, with the technology also providing desalinated water to desert regions as a valuable byproduct, as well as air conditioning for nearby cities.

[...]

CSP technology is not new. There has been a plant in the Mojave desert in California for the past 15 years. Others are being built in Nevada, southern Spain and Australia. There are different forms of CSP but all share in common the use of mirrors to concentrate the sun's rays on a pipe or vessel containing some sort of gas or liquid that heats up to around 400C (752F) and is used to power conventional steam turbines.

The mirrors are very large and create shaded areas underneath which can be used for horticulture irrigated by desalinated water generated by the plants. The cold water that can also be produced for air conditioning means there are three benefits. "It is this triple use of the energy which really boost the overall energy efficiency of these kinds of plants up to 80% to 90%," says Dr Knies.

This form of solar power is also attractive because the hot liquid can be stored in large vessels which can keep the turbines running for hours after the sun has gone down, avoiding the problems association with other forms of solar power. [and wind energy!]

[...]'

See full article: The Guardian, 27 November 2006.

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

"A £90 MILLION BIOMASS POWER STATION is to be built in Scotland, the first of its kind in the country, it was announced yesterday [12 October, 2005]. The [44 MW] development, at Lockerbie, Dumfriesshire, will burn natural fuel to power around 70,000 homes when it opens in December 2007.

The energy company E.ON UK [owners of Powergen], which already operates two wind farms in Scotland, said the project would generate more than 300 jobs in the area - 40 directly and 300 in forestry and farming. All 220,000 tonnes of fuel required for the station every year will come from the local area, the company said, with up to 45,000 tonnes coming from willow trees harvested by farmers. The plant will also be the largest dedicated wood-burning power station in the UK. Unlike fossil fuels, biomass is renewable energy."

Read the full Scotsman story.

Hundreds of these carbon-neutral plants have been built in Scandinavia [See some Danish examples] and Germany. "The largest output of sustainable energy in Denmark comes from biomass, that is, from the burning of, or the production of combustible gases from, hay, wood chips, manure from domestic animals, and garbage. Biomass accounts for 80% of the Danish production of sustainable energy." (Danish Govt. Portal)

Biomass is an example of a proven renewable technology that can be scaled to local needs and resources without damaging whole landscapes. Unfortunately, its development has suffered due to the Government's myopic concentration on wind power generation.

Unlike wind turbines, biomass provides 'firm' (i.e. predictable and reliable) energy that can substitute for fossil-fuelled power generation. Biomass energy generation also makes a real contribution in jobs and work for local businesses rather than just producing large windfall profits for a very few landowners and more work for Danish turbine manufacturers.

In Northumberland and the Borders, we let hundreds of thousands of tons of waste that is produced in harvesting and processing timber rot on the ground, releasing CO2 in the process. We also produce a huge tonnage of straw that could be used for biomass firing of combined heat and power (CHP) or ordinary power stations.
The only plant that has been constructed so far in the region is one tiny district heating scheme at Kielder. However, a 30MW wood-fuelled power station is planned for Wilton, on Teesside. Known as 'Wilton 10', this will create about 400 jobs during construction and 15 permanent ones. It is expected to be operational by mid-2007. [See Guardian article]

The largest straw burning power station in the world has been running for 5 years near Ely (see: EPR, Ely Power Station), in Cambridgeshire. This 38MW plant generates over 270GWh each year. It has successfully burned oil seed rape and miscanthus in addition to its usual fuel of cereal straw. The 200,000 tonnes p.a. fuel demand of the plant is supplied by Ely's sister company, Anglian Straw. The plant is highly efficient, is noted for its high reliability and achieves one of the highest load factors of any renewable energy plant.

Parliamentary Committee Indicts Government for Bioenergy Policy Failures

'A cross-party group of MPs has delivered a damning indictment of the government’s attempts to develop bioenergy in the UK, accusing it of lacking ambition and calling for greater support for biomass heating and electricity generation.

The Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee’s report ‘Climate change: the role of bioenergy’ found that current government policy is “piecemeal” and raised questions about commitment to the domestic climate change agenda.

The report stated: “Government must renew and redouble its efforts to exploit the potential of bioenergy. We are concerned about the multiplicity of government bioenergy support schemes currently planned or already in place, and the attendant level of confusion that this causes.

“Government departments must work much more closely together on bioenergy to develop a more streamlined and coherent strategy, and to demonstrate a more convincing commitment to tackling climate change.”

Renewable Energy Association head of fuels and heat Graham Meeks said it is a scandal that government continues to overlook the potential of bioenergy. “Although we have abundant bioenergy resources available from our forests, farms and waste management industry, the government has still to introduce coherent policies to encourage the supply of heat, transport fuels and renewable power from these sources.”

[...]'

(Renewable Energy News, Issue 104, 22 SEPTEMBER 2006)

OBJECTION!